Forecasting / Policy / Progress
published: 2026-05-09
updated: 2026-05-09
Sequence planning shell for timelines, progress forecasts, benchmark interpretation, and policy context.
Sequence: Forecasting / Policy / Progress
Main Ideas And Sequence Order
Blank for collaborative planning.
References
- Ajeya Cotra: Science and speculation — Essay on separating scientific claims from speculative forecasts.
- Ajeya Cotra: I underestimated AI capabilities again — Capability-update essay from Ajeya Cotra.
- Ajeya Cotra: AI predictions for 2026 — Forecasting essay for near-term AI progress.
- 80,000 Hours / Ajeya Cotra: It’s crunch time — Interview/newsletter source on RSI, AI safety work, and near-term urgency.
- AI Futures Project: Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027 — Forecast-update post explaining shifts after AI 2027.
- AI Futures Project: Forecast how AI will progress in 2026 — Forecasting post for AI progress in 2026.
- AI 2027 about page — Background on the AI 2027 project and its authors.
- Anson Ho / Epoch AI — Researcher profile for Epoch AI forecasting and progress analysis.
- Anson Ho: Keeping up with the GPTs — Epoch post on tracking progress across GPT-like models.
- Anson Ho: The least understood driver of AI progress — Epoch post on a key driver of AI progress.
- Anson Ho: How close is AI to taking my job? — Epoch post connecting benchmarks and labor-market impact.
- Anson Ho et al.: A Rosetta Stone for AI benchmarks — Benchmark taxonomy for comparing AI capability measures.